Groppe, Long & Littell takes a completely different approach to forecasting. We continuously attempt to understand every aspect of the business—the resource base, technology, commercial developments, government regulations, geopolitical events, etc. This, combined with a continuous, very detailed examination of the history, allows us to develop an accurate history of what actually happened in the past—and not the misperception common with trend studies alone. Today’s big problem is poor data quality, which is getting worse all the time. Unless one performs a large amount of work to assure an accurate understanding of what actually happened in the past (rather than misperceptions) one has almost no possibility of accurately anticipating what may happen in the future.
We think it is difficult, if not impossible, to make accurate short-term forecasts because they are so dependent on short term events that cannot be forecasted, such as the weather, or disruptions or threats of disruptions, whether they be physical, geopolitical, or accidents. We do attempt shorter term forecasts, assuming normal conditions, as part of our long-term forecasts.