Track Record Highlights

Below are examples of Groppe, Long & Littell's past performance, highlighting some of those of which we are most proud — those that set us apart from other forecasters. Our clients come to us because we provide forecasting insight that cannot be found elsewhere.

  • December 2013
    The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude had hovered near $100 per barrel for three years
    What everyone else said

    $100 per barrel is the “new normal” and prices will remain in this range for years to come.

    What GL&L said

    Oil prices will substantially decrease beginning in 2014 due to declining demand and the emergence of new supply.

    What happened

    Oil prices began to decline in the second half of 2014 and subsequently WTI averaged $49 per barrel in 2015 and $43 per barrel in 2016.

  • October 2011
    The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to a discount of $25 per barrel below the price for Brent crude.
    What everyone else said

    A “surplus” of crude will keep the discount wide ($10-20 per barrel) for most of the decade.

    What GL&L said

    New pipeline capacity will be added over the next two to three years that will result in a significant narrowing of the differential.

    What happened

    The price discount at the end of first quarter 2014 narrowed to $5 per barrel.

  • September 2009
    The number of horizontal gas rigs targeting US gas shales surpassed all other gas-directed drilling.
    What everyone else said

    New technology will allow producers to economically unlock vast shale resources.

    What GL&L said

    The shale resource is large but for production to be economical the pace of development must be moderate.

    What happened

    Rather than a rational approach, rapid development of gas shales drove the price for natural gas at Henry Hub below $4 per MMBTU rendering significant amounts of shale drilling uneconomical.

  • December 2008
    After reaching an average of $140 in June, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude had fallen to $53.50 per barrel.
    What everyone else said

    Oil prices will remain depressed throughout 2009.

    What GL&L said

    OPEC blundered again as it did in 2007 by cutting oil production too much and, more than likely, for too long. The price trend will change direction in early 2009.

    What happened

    The January average price of $41.68 marked the bottom of the cycle and oil rose steadily, exceeding $66 in May.

  • May 2008
    Over the previous twelve months, oil prices had more than doubled to almost $150 per barrel.
    What everyone else said

    Oil prices were widely forecast to reach $200 per barrel.

    What GL&L said

    The OPEC production cuts during 2007 were a blunder that would be corrected in the second half of 2008, thus returning oil prices to $60 to $70 per barrel.

    What happened

    The spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $70 during the third week of October 2008 then fell to the $50 range toward year end.

  • April 2004
    Wellhead gas prices in the United States were above $5 per Mcf and climbing.
    What everyone else said

    Numerous projects were proposed for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the United States.

    What GL&L said

    The “second coming” of LNG would have the same result as the attempts in the 1980s for the same reason – declining demand for natural gas.

    What happened

    Natural gas consumption declined by 1.7% in 2005 and again by 1.6% in 2006.

  • March 2003
    West Texas Intermediate was ranging between $27 and $38 per barrel.
    What everyone else said

    The anticipated invasion of Iraq would be brief and one result would be lower oil prices.

    What GL&L said

    The invasion would lead to a protracted guerrilla war and oil prices above $50 per barrel.

    What happened

    Prices began rising, initially exceeding $50 per barrel in October 2004.

  • March 2001
    Oil production in Mexico averaged 3.39 million barrels per day
    What everyone else said

    Production in Mexico could be sustained indefinitely.

    What GL&L said

    A peak in Mexican production is imminent, perhaps in 2003.

    What happened

    Mexican oil production began falling after reaching 3.62 million barrels per day in 2004.

  • June 1999
    Gas production in the Lower 48 states was 19.78 Tcf
    What everyone else said

    The National Petroleum Council, in its 1999 report to the Department of Energy, stated that “US production is projected to increase from 19 Tcf in 1998 to 25 Tcf in 2010, and could approach 27 Tcf in 2015.”

    What GL&L said

    A peak in Lower 48 state gas production is imminent.

    What happened

    Gas production in the Lower 48 states peaked in 2001 at 20.84 Tcf and began its irreversible decline.

  • April 1999
    OPEC met in March, 1999 and reduced quotas to 25.5 mmbd.
    What everyone else said

    The third round of production cuts might get prices back up to $18 to $20 per barrel by year-end.

    What GL&L said

    Because the OPEC ministers were confused about the numbers - including belief in “missing barrels” - they made a radical adjustment. If the new agreement holds past the meeting on September 22, the price of WTI can be expected to reach $30 per barrel by the end of 1999.

    What happened

    WTI was $30.12 per barrel at the end of February, 2000.

  • October 1998
    Low prices had the industry in a panic.
    What everyone else said

    Oil prices will remain depressed for a long time.

    What GL&L said

    All the fundamentals were in place for a big jump in oil prices within the next six months.

    What happened

    Oil prices began a dramatic recovery to more than $30 per barrel after the OPEC meeting in March, 1999.

  • August 1998
    OPEC met in June, 1998 and reduced quotas to 26.5 mmbd. Prices continued to decline in the second half of 1998.
    What everyone else said

    The “production cuts” are real and prices will recover to $18 to $20 per barrel.

    What GL&L said

    The real cuts in production are minimal. Prices will continue to decline.

    What happened

    At the end of February, 1999 WTI was $12.27 per barrel.

  • January 1998
    OPEC met in Jakarta, Indonesia in November, 1997 and raised quotas from 25.0 mmbd to 27.5 mmbd. This was seen as a non-event.
    What everyone else said

    Increasing quotas will have little effect because OPEC production of crude oil was already more than 27 mmbd during 1997.

    What GL&L said

    OPEC production of crude oil in 1997 was only 26 mmbd. The new quotas will drive WTI down to $17 per barrel.

    What happened

    At the end of October, 1997 WTI was $21.10 per barrel. At the end of March, 1998 it was $15.72 per barrel.

  • April 1996
    Enthusiasm for spending was increasing among E&P companies. As 1996 began, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $19.54 per barrel. By the end of 1996 it was $25.76.
    What everyone else said

    They said nothing. They didn’t warn anyone about the potential relief from Iraq.

    What GL&L said

    Iraq will get relief from the embargo following the November U.S. elections because it can prevent a large increase in prices for crude oil.

    What happened

    Iraq began exporting under the “oil for food” program in December, 1996. For practical purposes, the oil embargo ended in June, 1998.

  • June 1993
    In a statement related to the National Petroleum Council, the Department of Energy (DOE) wanted to develop “public and private sector confidence that natural gas can make a greater contribution to the energy security and environmental enhancement of our nation.”
    What everyone else said

    In their 1992 report on The Potential For Natural Gas in the United States, the National Petroleum Council said that natural gas will be produced and delivered in volumes sufficient to meet expanding market needs at competitive prices -25 Tcf of consumption in 2010.

    What GL&L said

    The National Petroleum Council report was badly flawed. The long-term outlook is for declines in production and consumption and prices of $4.00 to $5.00 per MMBTU.

    What happened

    In early 2000, production of natural gas declined and prices were consistently more than $4.00 per MMBTU.

  • February 1986
    The “gas bubble” - an excess of deliverability over market demand - resulted in lower prices and massive problems with take-or-pay contracts.
    What everyone else said

    The gas bubble will end in 12 to 18 months.

    What GL&L said

    The gas bubble will persist until 1993.

    What happened

    Market demand finally matched deliverability in late 1992. The average wellhead price was $1.93 per MMBTU in 1993 versus $1.35 per MMBTU in 1991.

  • October 1980
    Arab Light had risen from $12.70 per barrel in 1978 to more than $30 a barrel.
    What everyone else said

    Oil prices will continue to increase, perhaps to as much as $100 per barrel.

    What GL&L said

    Oil will be selling for $15 per barrel by 1985, half of its 1980 price.

    What happened

    Prices began falling after the October, 1985 OPEC meeting. In 1986 the average price for Arab Light was at $14.04 per barrel.